How Ali Khamenei used numbers, narratives and conspiracy to shape reality in Iran

This piece was written for the International Fact-checking Network and was first published on the Poynter website.

On the morning of Feb. 28, 2026, Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in an airstrike on his Tehran compound. He was one of the central figures of the system from the earliest days of the 1979 revolution. In the 1980s, he served as Iran’s president, and after the death of Ayatollah Khomeini, he became the supreme leader of the Islamic Republic.

For nearly four decades, Khamenei was the most influential figure in Iranian politics. He was not only the commander-in-chief of the armed forces and responsible for appointing and dismissing the head of the judiciary, but he also openly and covertly intervened in matters related to cabinet ministers and members of parliament. At the same time, Khamenei played a key role in shaping social and cultural policies, as well as determining the Islamic Republic’s major domestic, regional and international strategies.

Khamenei’s speeches were among his primary instruments of power — leverage he used alongside his financial, military, bureaucratic, and diplomatic authority to advance his policies.

At times, he delivered public speeches several times a week, and he primarily communicated his core views to different audiences through these addresses.

At Factnameh, an independent Persian-language fact-checking organization and a verified signatory of the International Fact-Checking Network Code of Principles, we examined 49 claims made by the former leader of the Islamic Republic: 13 received the label “Ridiculous,” 19 were rated “False,” 11 “Misleading,” 2 “Half True,” and only 4 claims earned a “True” rating.

Rare checkable claims

A large portion of Khamenei’s public remarks consisted of abstract concepts and general commentary about policies and the state of the country, sometimes accompanied by rhetorical threats against the “enemy,” statements that are generally not fact-checkable.

Factnameh first fact-checked a statement by the supreme leader during its first year of operation, in Nowruz 2018, the Persian New Year. In his annual speech — one of his most important yearly addresses — he presented statistics about economic inequality and income distribution in Iran before and after the revolution. Relying on incorrect data, Khamenei claimed that Iran’s situation had improved after the revolution and attempted to portray the country’s economic condition as better than it actually was.

At the time, we examined his claims and rated them false.

From that date until today, we have fact-checked roughly 50 additional claims by him, claims that directly affected the livelihoods, health and political and social lives of tens of millions of Iranians.

‘Iran is in good shape’

One of Khamenei’s main objectives in citing numbers, statistics and rankings was to convey a single message: “Iran is in good shape.”
Despite persistent structural economic challenges — and clear evidence of deteriorating indicators during his tenure — including inflation, national wealth, income levels and employment — he maintained that the Islamic Republic was in a strong position. He also repeatedly dismissed corruption as nonstructural, a characterization questioned even by figures within the political establishment.

Khamenei frequently described Iran as “among the top countries” in science and technology. He repeatedly asserted that the average IQ of Iranians exceeded the global average — an unsupported claim.

Other examples included inaccurate statements that Iran ranked as the world’s sixteenth scientific power, was second globally in science and engineering graduates, and saw inflated export growth under President Ebrahim Raisi. He also defended the integrity of Iran’s elections with claims that did not withstand scrutiny.

Collectively, these assertions advanced a consistent narrative: that his leadership had delivered measurable national success.

The West as ‘Iran’s Enemy’

Another recurring theme in Khamenei’s rhetoric was portraying the West — particularly the United States — as an adversary of Iran and its people, reinforcing a broader anti-Western narrative.

He repeatedly claimed, without credible evidence, that the United States had admitted to creating ISIS.

In 2019, he asserted that “European politicians and media refused to use the term ‘terrorist’ for the New Zealand crime.” In fact, following the March 15 attack on two mosques in Christchurch, New Zealand’s prime minister labelled the incident terrorism on the same day. European Union representatives and leaders across Europe and the United Kingdom similarly condemned it as a terrorist act.

Interestingly, while criticizing the West, Khamenei sometimes invoked Western policies to bolster his own positions. For example, in advocating for higher birth rates in Iran, he claimed the U.S. government also encouraged population growth — an inaccurate comparison.

He also cited incorrect statistics about Afghanistan to argue that U.S. involvement had brought no development gains. Among those claims was the assertion that “Afghanistan today, in terms of civil and development progress, is not ahead of where it was 20 years ago, if not behind,” a statement contradicted by multiple development indicators.

‘The COVID Conspiracy’

Khamenei’s embrace of conspiracy narratives arguably had its most immediate and consequential impact during the COVID-19 pandemic.

From the early days of the outbreak in Iran, he framed the virus through a lens of suspicion. On Feb. 12, 2020 — shortly after officials confirmed the virus’s presence and during parliamentary elections — he described COVID-19 as an “excuse” and a “fabricated illness,” suggesting it was designed to depress voter turnout. As fatalities mounted, the framing evolved, but the conspiratorial undertone persisted.

In his Nowruz 2020 message, he publicly speculated that the United States might have engineered the virus, raising the possibility of a biological attack and even genetic targeting of Iranians. This narrative contributed to distrust of foreign medical assistance and culminated in the expulsion of a Médecins Sans Frontières team from Iran.

At the same time, invoking “biological defense,” he endorsed the involvement of military forces in managing the pandemic response.

The approach peaked in January 2021, when Khamenei banned the import of U.S. and U.K.-made vaccines, including Pfizer and Moderna. He said Iran would not trust those countries or serve as their “laboratory.”

Following the directive, vaccine imports stalled, and authorities shifted focus to domestically produced vaccines such as Barekat, Noura and PastuCovac. Despite official claims of mass production, these vaccines failed to meet demand during the deadly summer 2021 surge.

By August 2021, amid soaring deaths and growing public pressure, Khamenei called for securing “millions of vaccine doses” through imports, effectively reopening the door to foreign vaccines. Later, pro-government outlets attempted to deny that a ban had ever existed.

During this period, Iran endured one of its most severe public health crises. Yet the supreme leader maintained that the pandemic had showcased the country’s medical progress.

Factnameh documented this trajectory in a documentary titled “Khamenei and the COVID Conspiracy,” detailing how conspiratorial thinking at the highest levels contributed to a nationwide health emergency.

The only correction

Publicly challenging Khamenei was effectively taboo in practice, even if not codified in law. Instances of him acknowledging error are virtually nonexistent — save one.

In his Nowruz 2021 speech, citing World Bank data, he claimed Iran was the world’s eighteenth-largest economy. Factnameh rated the claim false, explaining that the ranking was inaccurate.

The fact check circulated widely on social media. State-aligned media outlets attempted to defend the claim. Tasnim News Agency went further, photoshopping a ranking table to elevate Iran’s position. After Factnameh exposed the manipulation, the issue gained even more traction online.

Days later, at his subsequent speech, Khamenei addressed the matter:

“In the Nowruz speech I gave a statistic about Iran’s economic ranking, but afterward several people pointed out to me that this figure was incorrect. I asked my office to review it, and they did. It turned out they were right.”

To our knowledge, this marked the first and last time he publicly conceded an error during his tenure.

Transnational claims

Khamenei’s disputed statements extended beyond domestic policy.

Despite extensive evidence of the Islamic Republic’s involvement in Russia’s war against Ukraine, he denied Iran’s participation.

Following the Hamas-led attacks of Oct. 7, 2023, he asserted that residents of the targeted kibbutzim were not civilians but armed individuals. Soon after, he described the attack as consistent with international law.

He made these claims while also insisting that the Islamic Republic does not operate proxy forces, an assertion contradicted by well-documented military and paramilitary networks across the Middle East linked to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

What this meant for Iran

Taken together, Khamenei’s claims reveal clear and recurring patterns. Over decades, he regularly exaggerated numbers, minimized problems and presented complicated issues in ways that made the Islamic Republic look strong while portraying both foreign and domestic opponents as threats.

During the last nine years of his life, he included economic, scientific and social data in his remarks to convey a narrative of progress and strength, even when the facts contradicted his statements. He regularly used conspiratorial theories, selective use of evidence and repeated anti-Western framing, all of which strengthened his authority and made his policies seem justified.

Over time, this created a version of reality shaped by misinformation, which influenced how people saw the world and affected the lives of millions of Iranians.